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Submitted: 30 March, 2026
Accepted: 15 May, 2026
Published Online: 25 June, 2026
CITATION
Gebru et.al (2026). Trending Tensions: Social
Media and Inuencer Engagement in the
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Dispute.
EthioInquiry Journal of Humanities and
Social Sciences. Volume 5(1), 2026, 17-34.
https://doi.org/10.20372/3afd8r31
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EthioInq.J. Hum. and Socia. Sciences (2026), vol.5, Issue. 1, 17-34 17
https://journals.hu.edu.et/hu-journals/index.php/erjssh, ISSN: Print 2790-539X, Online 2790-5403
FULL LENGTH ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Trending Tensions: Social Media and Influencer Engagement in
the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Dispute
Sintayehu Gebru1∗�, Mulatu Alemayehu2�, and Samuel Tefera �
1College of Social Science, Arts and Humanities, Department of History and Archaeology, African Studies Program, Addis Ababa
University, Ethiopia
2University of Agder, Norway
∗Corresponding Author’s email: sench2393@gmail.com
Abstract
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a highly contentious issue in African and
Middle Eastern geopolitics. This issue has led to extensive international and domestic discourse
and negotiations. Social media can be regarded as a central stage for state and non-state actors to
express themselves regarding the GERD issue and engage in informal forms of digital geopolitics.
This study aims to examine the role of social media in shaping the GERD issue, with a specic
emphasis on the Egyptian and Ethiopian perspectives, which are the most vocal and impactful
contributors to this issue. This study employed a qualitative research approach and collected
data through interviews with 18 key informants, including diplomats, geopolitical experts,
social media inuencers, state ocials, international journalists and domestic advocates. The
study used thematic analysis to extract meaning from key informants’ interview data. The study
found that social media has greatly altered the way the GERD issue is framed, emphasizing
nationalism, counter-hegemonic narratives, misinformation and emotional framing. This
study contributes to the existing literature on digital geopolitics by examining the role and
impact of social media on conict and conict management. This study concludes that a deep
understanding of the role and impact of social media can help resolve international and domestic
conicts, with a specic emphasis on the Nile River Basin.
Keywords: GERD; social media; geopolitics; digital diplomacy; Nile Basin; Egypt;
Ethiopia.
1 INTRODUCTION
Digital geopolitics has become an inherent feature of international relations. As global
interconnectedness has grown, social media platforms such as Facebook, X (formerly
Twitter), YouTube, TikTok, and Telegram have played an important role as new political
domains for debating and discussing geopolitical topics (Castells,2009;Khatib,2016) .
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These tools are also characterized by content that disseminates emotionally charged narratives (Pa-
pacharissi,2015). One of the most important geopolitical issues in Africa and the Middle East, heavily
inuenced by social media, is the conict over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (Cascao
et al., 2020). The GERD, built on the Blue Nile River by Ethiopia, symbolizes national and political
development and sovereignty for the people of Ethiopia and poses a potential existential threat to the
water security of the people of Egypt (Tafesse,2020;Verhoeven,2015) .
Since the GERD project was declared, negotiations among Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan have been a cycle
of cooperation and conict (Cascao et al., 2020). While formal negotiations have taken place among the
three countries and other international actors, such as the African Union, the public nature and scope
of the GERD conict have greatly expanded through social media (Bjola &Holmes,2015). Social me-
dia sites have enabled governments, political elites, media personalities, and citizens to actively shape
public narratives about the legitimacy, ecological impact, historical context, and geopolitical nature of
the conict over the GERD dam. This digitalization of the GERD conict has turned the issue into a
public debate with heavy emotional appeal.
The growing salience of social media in the GERD dispute reects broader global trends. It is increas-
ingly shaping foreign policy, public diplomacy and international conicts (Manor,2019). Scholars have
highlighted the growing importance of social media as a forum for politics, in which power is exercised
by shaping the discourse and the agenda (Castells,2009). In the context of the GERD dispute, social
media has been widely used to mobilize nationalism, legitimize interests, subvert international me-
dia narratives, and shape political leaders’ policy stances, ranging from hardline to conciliatory (Frey,
2024). The issue is to critically examine how social media is reshaping international conicts in the
Global South, where historical grievances, postcolonial identities, and developmental aspirations con-
verge.
The GERD social media debates call for a high demand for academic papers with fewer outputs. Even
if there is increased awareness and social media debate about GERD, there are fewer academic studies
on its specic trends, actors, and narratives triggered by the riparian countries. Most research on GERD
has focused on legal issues, hydropolitics, and diplomacy, without considering social media and online
communication (Cascao et al., 2020;Tafesse,2020). This study seeks to ll this research gap by exploring
trends in social media communication concerning the GERD as a geopolitical issue, with special refer-
ence to Egypt and Ethiopia. By prioritizing the voices of key informants from diverse backgrounds and
professions, this study aims to provide a comprehensive and in-depth qualitative examination of social
media and GERD.
Research question: How have social media platforms inuenced trends, narratives, and geopolitical
issues concerning the GERD between Ethiopia and Egypt? To answer this research question, this study
aims to accomplish the following three objectives. First, it identies narratives and frames concerning
the GERD and social media communication. Second, this study aims to identify and explore the roles
of dierent actors in GERD and in social media communication. Finally, this study aimed to evaluate
the impact of social media communication on GERD and GERD-related issues.
This study aims to use a qualitative research approach and conduct key informant interviews with
18 informants from diverse backgrounds and professions, including diplomats, geopolitical analysts,
social media content creators, government ocials, international journalists, and local advocates from
Ethiopia and Egypt. Key informants were selected purposively following their active engagement in
posting and writing reports on social media related to the GERD geopolitical debate. This research
approach seeks to provide a comprehensive and in-depth understanding of social media and the GERD
as a geopolitical issue from the perspectives and levels of dierent actors (Creswell &Poth,2018). This
study aims to provide thematic data on GERD and social media communication, seeking to provide a
comprehensive understanding of complex issues.
The signicance of this study lies in its contribution to digital geopolitics, international communication,
and African studies. By focusing on the GERD as a case study, this paper highlights how social media
reshapes transboundary water conicts beyond traditional diplomatic arenas. This study also oers
practical implications for policymakers, diplomats, and media practitioners seeking to manage geopo-
litical disputes in an increasingly digitalized public sphere. The remainder of the paper is structured
as follows: a review of the relevant literature on social media, geopolitics, and the GERD, followed by
the theoretical framework. Next, the paper details the methodology, followed by the presentation of
results and discussion of the ndings. The nal sections conclude with limitations and directions for
future research.
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2 Literature Review
2.1 Geopolitics of the Nile Basin and the GERD
The Nile River has been at the heart of East Africa’s geopolitics and the politics of many other actors
around the globe, serving both as a lifeline for the countries that share its waters and as a focal point
of political tensions between them. Research on the Nile’s politics has focused on the asymmetrical
power relations between the involved countries, which favored the downstream states, especially Egypt,
throughout the twentieth century (Cascao et al., 2020;Swain,2018). Ethiopia, which contributes over 80
percent of the Nile’s water through the Blue Nile, has been excluded from the Nile’s decision-making
process and has come to be seen by Ethiopian policymakers as a historical injustice.
The GERD’s development represents a departure from the historical pattern in Nile River politics and
has been studied extensively by scholars who commonly agree that it is a development strategy in-
tended to assert Ethiopia’s sovereignty and reassert its position in Nile River politics Gebreluel,2021;
Verhoeven,2018. For Ethiopia, the GERD represents national unication, post-colonialism, and moder-
nity. However, Egyptian research and policy-oriented publications commonly portray the GERD as an
illegal move by Ethiopia that can cause water insecurity and national instability, creating uncertainty
about reservoir lling and drought risks Abdel-Aal et al., 2023;Salman,2020.
In light of recent research, the GERD conict cannot be fully understood from hydrological or legal
perspectives and must be considered in the context of geopolitical transformations in Africa and the
Middle East. These transformations include shifts in regional alliances on one side and the weakening
of Western mediators on the other, in favor of the African Union’s increasing involvement in conict
resolution (Abdelhady &Helmy,2021). These studies oer useful insights into the conict and negoti-
ations between Egypt and Ethiopia, focusing on state actors and the formal negotiation process while
ignoring the impact of mediated public opinion on the conict environment.
2.2 Social Media Trends in Egypt
Social media use in Egypt has signicantly aected communication, social participation, and cultural
production in the last decade. Egypt is Africa’s largest digital market; therefore, the use of the Inter-
net and other digital technologies is growing signicantly. The use of Facebook, Instagram, TikTok,
and Twitter is widespread among the Egyptian population (Kemp,2025a). This has aected various
aspects of Egyptian society, including commerce, politics, education, and the construction of identity,
empowerment, and governance in Egypt. Youth are the core targets of the impact of social media use in
Egyptian society. This is attributed to the fact that Egyptian society is still young. Egyptian youth use
social media to express their identity and construct their sense of belonging. This is attributed to the
limited spaces where young people meet (Gazzar,2016). Social media use by youth has psychological,
social, and cultural empowerment eects on youth (Shaaban,2023) , which is consistent with network
society theory (Castells,2012). In addition to the construction of identity and empowerment, it aects
civic engagement and political awareness. In the past, it was argued to be an example of digital activism
(Kaplan &Haenlein,2011), but recent ndings indicate that it is not Tufekci,2017.
In education, social media facilitates informal collaboration, networking, and knowledge sharing (Green-
how &Lewin,2016;Ricks,2022). It also facilitates hybrid learning, although it can be a distraction for
students and create confusion between the personal and educational spheres. Overuse by young peo-
ple can lead to anxiety, depression and poor academic performance (Keles et al., 2020) . In the realm
of economics, social media is important for entrepreneurship, marketing, and online business, repre-
senting a global phenomenon of platform economy (van Dck et al., 2018). In the realm of institutions,
the use of social media by the government is inconsistent, with a lack of strategic coordination despite
eorts to enhance public engagement (Elsherbiny,2015).
In conclusion, social media in Egypt can be considered a socio-technical system with a dynamic nature,
as emphasized byvan Dck et al. (2018). It can be a source of empowerment, knowledge and engagement
(Greenhow &Lewin,2016;Valkenburg &Peter,2011). It can also be a source of risk for individuals,
education, and the government (Keles et al., 2020;Poell &van Dck,2018).
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2.3 Social Media Trends in Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s social media environment is constantly changing, driven by youth involvement, infrastruc-
tural limitations, and socio-political factors. Internet usage is still low but increasing, with approxi-
mately 8.3 million users Kemp,2025b. Despite the urban-rural gap and the dominance of Addis Ababa,
social media is becoming increasingly important for communication and socialization. Social media
has both negative and positive eects on education, contributing to poor performance and reduced pro-
ductivity (Alemayehu &Alamirew,2023;Mulisa &Getahun,2018;Tesfay et al., 2023) and providing
access to information and collaborative learning (Tesfay et al., 2023).This is also supported by other nd-
ings (Greenhow &Lewin,2016), especially in limited-resource contexts. Social media has signicant
implications for democracy, including democratic participation and polarization, particularly during
political instability (Haile,2024). Social media has also been implicated in hate speech, particularly in
ethnically mixed countries, resulting in government actions that infringe on the freedom of expression
(Gagliardone et al., 2015).
Youth are at the heart of social media, using it to express identity, creativity, and economic opportuni-
ties, including digital entrepreneurship (Mulisa &Getahun,2018). The Ethiopian diaspora also plays
a role in the social media environment, contributing to information exchange and polarization (Haile,
2024). From a theoretical perspective, the Ethiopian case contributes to the networked public sphere,
which emphasizes digital participation (Tufekci,2017), as well as the diusion of innovations, particu-
larly the role of urban centers (Rogers,2003).
In conclusion, the Ethiopian social media environment is marked by its complexity, with both enabling
and constraining eects across education, democracy, and youth involvement. The role of the diaspora,
urban-rural disparity, and government responses further illustrate how social media shapes and are
shaped by Ethiopian society.
2.4 Social Media and Contemporary Geopolitics
It has been argued in the body of knowledge that the rise of social media has revolutionized the produc-
tion and dissemination of geopolitical knowledge. For instance, it has been asserted that the rise of social
media has transformed geopolitics from a state-centric activity to a more uid concept involving jour-
nalists, activists, inuencers, and users (Miskimmon et al., 2017). This has resulted in the development
of a new concept referred to as ”popular geopolitics,” which explores the construction of geopolitical
knowledge through the lens of media practices rather than through ocial policy discourse.
It is argued in the body of knowledge that the geopolitical signicance of social media lies in its ability
to accelerate the ow of information, personalizes political narratives, and bridge the gap between do-
mestic and foreign policy issues. For instance, it has been asserted in the body of knowledge that social
media has become an increasingly important tool in the hands of states as a form of strategic communi-
cation. Simultaneously, social media has been used by non-state actors to contest state narratives (Bjola
&Manor,2018;Frey,2024). In this regard, it has been argued in the body of knowledge that social
media has become a key tool in the hands of non-state actors. At the same time, it has been asserted
in the body of knowledge that social media has a tendency to privilege conict over analysis. It has
been asserted in the body of knowledge that social media has an ambivalent role in conict situations.
For instance, it has been argued in the body of knowledge that social media has been used in conict
situations to raise awareness and engage citizens. At the same time, it has been asserted in the body of
knowledge that social media has a tendency to polarize audiences. In this regard, it has been argued
in the body of knowledge that social media has a tendency to lead to digital nationalism (Bradshaw &
Howard,2018). In recent times, it has been asserted in the body of knowledge that geopolitical conicts
are increasingly being fought through a form of online narrative competition (Jackson,2026). In this
regard, it has been argued in the body of knowledge that legitimacy, victimhood, and memory have
become key symbolic resources in conict situations.
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2.5 Research Gaps
Plans for ameliorating the environmental impacts of assorted activities downstream from the GERD are
disconnected from existing scholarship on the GDMS, with little attention paid to social media shaping
geopolitical narratives Cascao et al., 2020;Tafesse,2020. The literature discussing the contribution of
social media to wider land geopolitics is indeed growing, though these tend to have theoretical slants
in relation to an overrepresentation of Global North geographic regions with limited empirical focus
relevant to African contexts Willems and Mano,2017. When studies address the African digital sphere,
they frequently treat social media as a means of passively transmitting information rather than as an
active battleground of contestation, identity construction, or diplomacy signaling.
However, some critical gaps remain in the literature, such as the gap between practitioners and scholars,
where analyses of GERD-related discourse are rarely conducted from the perspective of those who
produce, curate, and respond to social media content: diplomats, international journalists, government
ocials, civil society activists, digital creators, and local community voices. This lack of social ecology to
explore norms shaping media narratives around water means that the mechanisms through which such
stories are framed, amplied, or curbed in transboundary conict contexts remain opaque. Accordingly,
the intersections of digital diplomacy on strategic communication and hydro politics in the Nile Basin
have yet to be studied empirically by those directly embedded in the conict.
To ll this scholarly gap, this study employs a qualitative and actor-centered methodology situated at
the intersection of critical geopolitics, communication studies, and digital diplomacy. The approach is
organized around three analytical and methodological commitments.
1. Qualitative depth-key informant interviews: The research is based on 18 semi-structured key
informant interviews (KII) drawn from a purposive and intentional heterogeneous sampling of
diplomats, international journalists, civil society activists, local actors, and digital content creators
identied by the authors independent survey of their social media activities on the GERD in both
Egypt and Ethiopia.
2. Cross-disciplinary analytical framework: Instead of analyzing the question within a single dis-
ciplinary lens, this study incorporates two interdisciplinary frameworks: framing theory and crit-
ical geopolitics.
3. Comparative examination across two countries: This study shifts the focus to both Egypt and
Ethiopia instead of defaulting to one country, providing a symmetrical analytical framework that
shows how actors on each side create narratives that compete or oppose others’ narratives through
social media.
Combined, these three commitments prepare the study for a unique empirical and theoretical contri-
bution: this is both the rst actor-grounded contemporary cross-disciplinary account of social media
trend shaping geopolitical impacts in an ongoing African trans-boundary water conict (practitioner
gap with regional data; interdisciplinary gap).
2.6 Theoretical Framework
This study adopts an interdisciplinary theoretical approach, drawing on popular geopolitics, framing
theory, and digital diplomacy. Such an approach promises to providea rich analytical tool for investigat-
ing the role of social media in the construction of geopolitics, power dynamics, and public engagement
in the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). In this sense, the approach moves beyond
state-centric and materialistic understandings of geopolitics.
2.6.1 Popular Geopolitics
This perspective combines elements of cultural studies theory, discourse analysis, and critical geopol-
itics theory, focusing on the social mediation of geopolitical knowledge. As mentioned in the founda-
tional works of geopolitics theory by Dalby and Tuathail (1996) geopolitics is not just about territory or
military capabilities; it is also about narratives, symbols, and meanings. Thus, the popular geopolitics
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perspective explores how the practice of everyday life—ranging from dinner table talk to blockbuster
lms—sustains geopolitical imaginaries (Dodds,2018;Kirsch &Flint,2016)
The rise of digital media technologies, such as social networking, in the twenty-rst century has greatly
magnied the phenomenon of popular geopolitics in international relations. Unlike traditional mass
media, which mediated geopolitical discourses through journalistic institutions, the rise of social media
technologies in the twenty-rst century has enabled the decentralized mediation of these discourses.
Ordinary people in the twenty-rst century create, edit, and disseminate geopolitical discourses at an
unprecedented rate (Papacharissi,2015;Sommerville,2024). However, the rise of social media technolo-
gies in the twenty-rst century has also heightened the politics of meaning in international relations,
with Twitter, Facebook, and TikTok becoming platforms for shaping the public meaning of conict,
border disputes, refugees, and nationalism in international relations Abdelhady and Helmy,2021;Lutz
and Homann,2017.
In addition, the logic of algorithmic social media plays a signicant role in shaping geopolitical con-
tent and making it visible, which eventually generates aective engagement that might shape political
opinions and mobilize collective action on geopolitical issues Couldry and Hepp,2017;Fuchs,2017.
For instance, hashtags about wars and human rights abuses are sites of state propaganda and counter-
hegemony, demonstrating how geopolitics are co-produced by a diverse range of social actors within
digital spaces Bergh,2020;Zuckerman,2014. Therefore, popular geopolitics challenges elite-centric the-
ories of understanding geopolitical issues by showing that geopolitical meanings are not solely created,
contested, and reied by institutional actors but are also co-produced, contested, and reied through
cultural texts, media practices and discourse. While social media has extended the scope of popular
geopolitics, it has also made it more complicated.
In the GERD context, popular geopolitics is particularly relevant because the dispute is deeply embed-
ded in national identity narratives, historical memories, and postcolonial sensibilities. For Ethiopian
users, social media discourse frequently frames the GERD as a symbol of dignity, self-reliance, and re-
sistance to historical marginalization. In contrast, Egyptian online narratives often emphasize existen-
tial vulnerability, historical rights to the Nile River, and regional stability. These competing imaginar-
ies are continuously reproduced, contested, and amplied through digital platforms, making popular
geopolitics a crucial lens for understanding the conict’s public dimensions.
2.6.2 Framing Theory
Framing is an important factor in the perception of threats, actors, responsibilities, and actions in
geopolitics. In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, media framing of “terrorism” highlighted the threat,
foe, and solution, thus increasing support for the military and surveillance (Altheide,2006;Entman,
2004). In the case of immigration in Europe and North America, immigrants were portrayed as con-
tributing to the economy or as threats (van Gorp,2010;Wodak,2010).
Framing theory is grounded in news media and is thus applicable to social media and other forms of
digital media (Chong &Druckman,2007;Pan &Kosicki,2001). An important factor in social media
framing is the “aective economy,” in which algorithms prioritize emotions and drama (Couldry &
Hepp,2017;Papacharissi,2015). In the context of geopolitics, this has led to oversimplied accounts of
conict in which heroes and villains abound (Bruns &Burgess,2015;Higheld,2016). Iconic images of
conict or other dramatic scenes can powerfully shape our perception of the world by linking images
to moral judgments and actions (Amponsah,2024;Happer &Philo,2013). These images can highlight
humanitarian crises or threats, such as those in refugee camps or conict zones.
Social media platforms can create a networked and participatory culture. This, in turn, helps users and
inuencers collectively create and share meanings (Carver,2025;Castells,2012). The #BlackLivesMat-
ter and #SaveAleppo movements demonstrate the power of social media to frame global discourse and
mobilize action, taking a person’s case Aelst et al., 2017;Freelon et al., 2016. However, this has also en-
abled governments and other actors to engage in “computational propaganda” Bradshaw and Howard,
2018;Woolley and Howard,2016.
Overall, the framing theory is an important factor in understanding the negotiation and contestation
of meaning in social media geopolitics. Social media is not just a reection of existing meaning but a
transformation of meaning into emotions and drama. The application of framing theory to the GERD
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issue demonstrates the role of social media frames, such as the concepts of sovereignty, survival, devel-
opment, injustice, and cooperation, in the strategic environment. The interviewees identied framing
eects and used frames to target dierent audiences. Therefore, framing theory is useful for analyzing
the role of social media narratives in the GERD issue.
3 Methodology
This study adopts a qualitative approach to explore the trend of social media in the geopolitical dis-
course surrounding the GERD between Egypt and Ethiopia. The qualitative research approach is ap-
propriate for addressing complex geopolitical processes that are informed by meanings, interpretations
and narratives rather than by quantitative factors. This study seeks to generate an in-depth understand-
ing of the perceptions of key actors in the GERD discussion, with a focus on social media trends and
framing implications.
3.1 Research Design
It is based on an interpretivist paradigm that assumes a constructionist view of social reality, in which
language, discourse, and interaction are essential to its construction. By focusing on social media and
geopolitics, this study explores how actors make sense of the GERD, construct meaning from digital
communication, and evaluate its eects. Rather than following a hypothesis-testing methodology, this
research aimed to identify patterns and themes from the data collected from the participants. Therefore,
the study design was a thematic analysis. Key informant interviews were primarily used in this study
because they provide access to expert and insider knowledge, as well as reections on social media
practices. GERD is a sensitive issue; therefore, a exible space is needed for a nuanced perspective that
cannot always be expressed in a public forum such as social media.
3.2 Sampling and Participants
The research employed 18 key informant interviews with individuals who were either directly or indi-
rectly involved in the social media discourse on GERD. Purposive sampling was employed to ensure
that the interview respondents came from diverse professional backgrounds and had views that aligned
with the research objectives. The respondents were selected for their interest and/or expertise in GERD
through close looking at their social media posting activities regarding GERD. At some level, snowball
techniques have been employed to reach them easily. The selection also considered their professional
involvement in diplomacy, media, and advocacy, using their social media activities as a pillar.
Table 1: Composition of the Study Sample by Participant Category
Participant Category Description n
Diplomats Current or former ocials involved in Nile Basin negotiations or public diplomacy eorts 4
Geopolitical Analysts Scholars and policy analysts specializing in regional politics and transboundary water issues 4
Social Media Content Creators Inuencers and digital commentators with substantial online followings discussing the
GERD
3
Government Ocials Policy advisors and communication ocers engaged in GERD-related messaging 3
International Journalists Reporters covering the GERD for international media outlets 2
Local Advocates Civil society actors involved in public awareness and advocacy related to water rights and
development
2
Note. Total sample size (N=18).
This was done by basing the study participants in Egypt and Ethiopia to obtain balanced upstream and
downstream perspectives of the same phenomenon. Condentiality was ensured by referring to the
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participants using anonymous labels (e.g., KI1 and KI2).
3.3 Data Collection tools and sampling techniques
This research employed a qualitative approach to explore experts’ opinions on social media use trends
in GERD. This research employed semi-structured key informant interviews.
This study employed a purposive sampling approach to select informants with relevant expertise and
social media engagement in issues concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The informants
included diplomats, political analysts, international journalists, government ocials, local experts, and
social media inuencers who actively engaged in and contributed to the social media discourse on
GERD. The informants were required to have relevant experience in geopolitical communication, hy-
dropolitics, or Nile Basin digital commentary beyond their active use of social media on the GERD. This
research explored social media trends, emotional tone, geopolitical analysis, diaspora engagement, in-
stitutional roles, and public sentiment through interviews with key informants.
Concurrently, the study employed a sampling approach to explore social media trends on GERD-related
issues across major platforms, including Facebook and X (Twitter). This research explored major social
media discourse on key phases in the development of the GERD, including announcements of dam
lling and diplomatic engagement in talks surrounding the dam. This research employed a keyword
search and snowball sampling to identify individuals who were either actively writing or associated
with GERD and its social media trends.
The sampling for the social media data also emphasized the high level of engagement with the trend
around the geopolitical debate rather than the breadth of sampling. This is analogous to the qualitative
digital research criteria for adequacy, where the construction of meaning is emphasized over quanti-
cation of data.
3.4 Data Analysis
Data analysis employed qualitative thematic analysis with theoretical lenses from framing theory and
popular geopolitics. The analysis had three stages: initial coding, theme categorization, and theoretical
interpretation.
First, open coding of the interviews was conducted, which involved the identication of recurring
trending ideas, narrative structures, emotions, and the language of sovereignty. It was data-driven,
although inuenced by theoretical considerations, including framing components such as problem def-
inition, causal interpretation, moral evaluation, and treatment recommendation, as discussed by Ent-
man (1993). Second, the coded data were categorized into themes, which are the primary dimensions
of the dominant trending discourse. Finally, the data were interpreted, which involved the application
of theoretical lenses from the framing theory and popular geopolitics analysis. It provides insights into
the signicance of digital communication in the creation of geopolitical meaning (Tuathail,1996). The
triangulation of the interviews lent credibility to the data, whereas the thick description and integration
of the theories provided the data with the required validity. This study aimed to demonstrate the sig-
nicance of digital trends in shaping national identity and the narrative of hydropolitics and national
sovereignty in contemporary political communication in Ethiopia.
3.5 Methodological Justication
This research employs qualitative interpretive research methods to analyze social media trends on
GERD. Qualitative research is appropriate for examining the construction of meaning, framing, and
identity in digital political communication on geopolitical issues. Therefore, this dataset is appropriate
for this study. Most hydropolitics literature (Cascao et al., 2020;Waterbury,2002) stresses the legal-
institutional and strategic dimensions of water governance while ignoring the social construction of
geopolitical meaning in digital media. Interpretive analysis can be used to analyze the social construc-
tion of narratives of sovereignty, development, and history in social media trends. This study employs
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a constructivist epistemology that assumes that political reality is co-produced with language, sym-
bols, and communication. This epistemology is appropriate for this research because it is in line with
framing theory (Entman,1993) and critical geopolitics (Tuathail,1996), which argue that the nature of
geopolitical reality is socially constructed.
3.6 Ethical Considerations
This study adhered to the principles of ethical research. It involved conducting 18 key informant inter-
views on GERD. To ensure the safety, condentiality, and voluntary participation of the participants,
the Nile Basin hydropolitics, science, and academic integrity were upheld. The study provided an in-
formation sheet about the study, its objectives, scope, and use in academia, and the participants’ rights.
The participants provided recorded consent, and the study was conducted voluntarily. The partici-
pants were anonymized using codes such as KI-01, KI-02, and so on, up to KI-18. No identifying or
role-specic information was collected, which is benecial for those in diplomacy, policymaking, and
journalism. The study was conducted individually or online through the encrypted platforms ZOOM
and WhatsApp. The study was saved in password-protected les for academic use.
The study was conducted in a neutral manner to avoid misinterpretations. No confrontational position
was adopted. No vulnerable groups or minors were included in this study. Although the study was
about a sensitive issue, the risk was low. Voluntariness, condentiality, non-malecence, and integrity
were maintained in academia.
3.7 Reexivity Statement
Reexive awareness is employed to consider the hydropolitics of the Nile Basin. The researcher rec-
ognized the possible inuence of national, regional, and ideological stances. Systematic coding with
cross-validation was used to avoid biases. Repeated patterns are relied upon to draw conclusions, not
normative views of Ethiopian, regional, or international politics.
4 Results: Social Media Usage Trends in Ethiopian GERD Dis-
course
This section presents the results from the 18 key informant interviews to show the GERD’s geopolitical
landscape and its trend on social media. The results are presented in themes categorized from the
coding process.
4.1 Persistent and Mobilizing Social Media Engagement
The GERD debate demonstrates long-term engagement with social media, characterized by consistent
visibility rather than peaks. The GERD debate is characterized as a long-term national project with
signicant social implications in the Ethiopian online media. One of the informants explained that the
GERD debate is developmental and national in nature rather than a matter of Ethiopian party politics:
Online, GERD is not treated as a typical political issue. People frame it as being related to the nation’s
survival and long-term development. Negotiation is discussed as a national survival and development
agenda. This idea is not political. It is a national survival and development agenda for the country.
This is how people frame it online.(KII1 )
KII1 Another important aspect that the participants emphasized was that the GERD debate was inu-
enced by external actors. The participants emphasized that the GERD debate is more active when the
international community comments on the dam. As one of the informants explained,
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Discussions become more active when international actors speak about dams. A foreign ocial, inter-
national media, or a regional government statement encourages Ethiopian users to discuss the GERD
on social media. This is how GERD remains active on social media platforms.(KII2)
KII2 Another important aspect that the participants emphasized was the symbolic nature of GERD.
Participants emphasized that GERD is a symbol of Ethiopia as a nation. The GERD is a symbol of
national pride and unity. The GERD symbolizes that Ethiopians can achieve something signicant.
One participant explained:
In the GERD debate on social media, it is not just a dam. It is a symbol of Ethiopia as a nation. The
GERD is a symbol of national pride. The GERD is a symbol of national unity. The GERD symbolizes
that Ethiopians can achieve something signicant. This explains the strong reaction to GERD.(KII3)
4.2 Multi-Layered Narrative Framing
Social media discourse on GERD generally focuses on sovereignty, development, memory, and energy
justice, with particular emphasis on sovereignty. On social media, GERD is discussed as Ethiopia’s
rightful utilization of the Blue Nile waters for national development, reecting Ethiopia’s sovereignty.
Foreign criticism, according to one of our KII respondents, often prompts Ethiopians on social media
to defend their positions with rebuttals:
Many Ethiopians perceive foreign criticism of the GERD as interference in Ethiopia’s sovereign rights,
particularly when outsiders criticize its progress. In response, Ethiopians on social media emphasize
Ethiopia’s sovereign right to utilize Blue Nile waters for national development; hence, foreign criticism
of the GERD is perceived as interference in Ethiopia’s sovereign rights on Blue Nile waters.(KII8)
Development and modernization are other salient themes in social media discourses on the GERD,
with users presenting it as a agship infrastructure project with the potential to transform Ethiopia’s
economy and enhance its regional energy leadership.
In the online debate on development issues, the primary reason for the GERD is development, which
is expected to increase electricity provision, expand industries, and modernize Ethiopia. It is viewed
as both a facility for energy provision and a means of development and modernization. (KII5)
Aside from development issues, online debates on digital talk have also centered on energy inequality.
In this case, GERD is viewed as a means of resolving issues of electricity provision, particularly in rural
areas.
Historical symbolism has also viewed the GERD as part of Ethiopia’s history of resistance and unity.
In the online debate, the GERD has been linked to the historical memories of Ethiopia’s past achieve-
ments. The GERD has also been linked to historical issues in Ethiopia, particularly the Adwa battle.
In this case, the facility has been viewed by some individuals as a means of resistance, particularly a
second Adwa, that has enabled Ethiopia to achieve something great.(KII7)
These issues show that GERD has been viewed from dierent perspectives on Ethiopian social media.
4.3 Phase-Dependent Social Media Tone Shifts
Online discussions related to the GERD have also shown clear phase-based variations, including dis-
tinct patterns of social media chatter on construction, negotiations, and reservoir lling. For example,
during the initial construction phases, discussions were primarily educational and anticipatory, with
users sharing information on the project’s technical and hydrological aspects, including explanations
of basic dam-building processes, diagrams of water ow, and discussions of misinformation in regional
and international media. For example, during intensied diplomatic phases, discussions of the project’s
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technical/hydrological aspects increased, including references to international water governance prin-
ciples, particularly during negotiations involving Egypt and Sudan, where an informant indicated that
Ethiopians increasingly used technical reasoning to justify their positions.
“For example, during negotiations, users employed technical language that referenced engineering
details, hydrological data, and international water law principles, seeking to demonstrate the techni-
cal/hydrological justication of the GERD.” (KII11)
Announcements about lling the reservoir were an important development in the evolution of online
communications. These announcements sparked a surge in social media activity, characterized by cel-
ebratory and patriotic content and the widespread use of patriotic symbols and hashtags.
“During the announcements, social media timelines were characterized by content expressing pride
in the progress of the dam’s construction. The content was celebratory and conveyed a sense of ac-
complishment among the online community”.(KII12)
However, the participants observed that the patterns returned to normal as the process advanced.
According to the participants, during the completion of each stage of the lling process, communica-
tion about the dam shifted from celebratory or argumentative content to a more normalized tone that
indicated increased condence in its completion.(KII13)
Overall, the changes in the patterns over time indicate that GERD communication evolved from infor-
mative during the early stages of construction to argumentative during negotiations and nally cele-
bratory and normalized during the lling process.
4.4 Emotion-Driven Social Media Interaction Patterns
The emotional drivers of GERD discourse on social media include pride, hope, defensive nationalism,
and brief celebratory bursts. Pride is an emotion that drives people to engage for a long time. GERD is
associated with national pride, technological capabilities, and national prosperity.
“The people of Ethiopia are proud to be associated with the GERD. They are proud of their technological
capabilities in constructing such dams. They are also proud to see their country prospering”.(KII14)
Hope is another emotion associated with GERD. The Ethiopian people are hopeful about their future.
“The GERD is seen as an investment for the future. The people are also full of hope for their country’s
future.”(KII16)
Defensive nationalism is also associated with the GERD discourse on social media. Ethiopians are
defensive about their nation. They feel that the international community is not giving their country the
respect it deserves.
“The negative media coverage of their country is also an issue. People are also defensive about the
historical injustices their country has endured”.(KII15)
Brief celebratory bursts are also emotions associated with GERD discourse on social media. The Ethiopian
people are proud of their nation.
Brief celebratory bursts are seen when a major milestone is reached in the construction of the GERD.
The people are happy to see their country achieving great things”. (KII17)
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4.5 Stratied Urban–Diaspora Social Media Participation
Diaspora Ethiopians serve as digital ambassadors, promoting hashtags and engaging with international
journalists.
“The diaspora are global narrative ampliers. They control the global discourse on the GERD”.( KII2)
“The diaspora is involved in amplifying hashtags and engaging with international journalists”. (KII4)
The discourse of the diaspora is emotional and sensitive to the global media. Urban discourse is prag-
matic and domestic, focusing on issues such as the reliability of electricity supply, industrialization, and
governance. Urban discourse contextualizes the GERD within broader debates on the national econ-
omy. These two discourses complement each other. Diaspora discourse amplies international and
symbolic discourse.
4.6 Institutionalization of Digital Nationalism in GERD Online Discourse
However, over time, communication about the GERD has evolved into digital nationalism in Ethiopia.
The project symbolizes national independence, dignity, and modernity of the country.
“The discourse on GERD is so deeply ingrained in national identity that any challenges are not per-
ceived as threats to national survival but are viewed as temporary.”(KII18)
The discourse demonstrates stable narrative frames, predictable emotions, and resilience.
5 Discussion: from Theoretical Perspectives
5.1 Framing Theory Perspective
From a political communication perspective, this study demonstrates that online communication about
the GERD follows a socially framed pattern and that users frame specic aspects of it to shape interpre-
tation and understanding, as proposed by Entman (1993) theory of framing. The study demonstrates
that a development-and-sovereignty frame dominates online communication about the GERD, framing
it as a solution to energy inequality and a means by which Ethiopia asserts its independence in the Nile
River Basin.
What is unique about this study is that it demonstrates that the framing process is decentralized and
that users engage in online communication about GERD in a decentralized manner. Thus, this sug-
gests that modern political communication involves a more decentralized, socially framed process that
is often overlooked in more centralized media-based models. Moreover, this study frames this com-
munication as a form of techno-nationalist discourse in which Ethiopia’s development and sovereignty
are tied to its technological capabilities and infrastructure projects, such as the GERD. This is consistent
with the development of nationalism theories proposed by Chipato (2023), which suggest that in post-
colonial states such as Ethiopia, large-scale infrastructure projects are a means by which states assert
their capabilities and independence.
Signicantly, this study demonstrates that this form of techno-nationalist discourse is digitally medi-
ated and constitutes public communication that is socially framed and produced by citizens and civil
society in Ethiopia and abroad. Moreover, this form of communication about GERD serves a collective
problem-denition role, which is a fundamental aspect of political communication theory, as proposed
by Entman,1993;van Dk,2013. In this sense, it frames a solution to energy inequality and Ethiopia’s
exclusion from Nile River Basin governance legitimately.
The ndings reveal that this problem-denition process is not only technical or policy-driven but also
normative and identity-driven. The connection between sovereignty and historical justice creates a
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layer of meaning that links policy debates to narratives of national dignity and self-determination in
Japan. This multi-layered meaning structure has helped GERD discourse survive the changing political
environment with a constant center.
In conclusion, GERD-based social media discourse represents an emergent political communication
model that involves participatory framing, techno-nationalist symbolism, and problem denition. This
explains the dynamic and aective quality of GERD-based social media discourse and the growing
importance of the Internet and social media as factors in the interpretation and legitimation of mega
development projects.
5.2 Popular Geopolitics and Critical Hydropolitics Perspective
The ndings robustly support the tenets of popular geopolitics theory, which posits that the knowledge
production of geopolitics is a socially distributed cultural practice rather than a solely state-centered
diplomatic practice. Thus, geopolitics is practiced as a discourse that determines the imagining and
communication of spatial political power relations. This is in the context of the popular geopolitics
theory as propounded by Sharp (2019) and Tuathail (1996) .
In the Ethiopian digital communication environment, geopolitical meaning is thus produced as a de-
centralized practice of social media engagement rather than solely institutionalized foreign policy en-
gagement. Facebook thus serves as a geopolitical engagement practice for imagining and communicat-
ing spatial political power relations by the Ethiopian citizenry as they practice narrative defense and
historical justication of the nation’s geopolitical interests.
The academic literature on hydropolitics in Africa provides signicant context for interpreting the nd-
ings. The Nile Basin’s water governance has been determined by treaty infrastructure characterized by
asymmetrical colonial and postcolonial treaty arrangements. This has determined the contemporary
upstream-downstream water political relations in the basin.
5.3 Digital Nationalism, Postcolonial Identity, and Historical Memory
Thus, the study demonstrates that GERD is symbolically linked to the Battle of Adwa, drawing on anti-
colonial memories in contemporary online discourse. GERD is framed through Adwa references, which
serve as anchors, creating meaning around GERD, resistance, sovereignty, and national pride, especially
on social media, where GERD is called a ”second Adwa.” This is similar to Anderson (1983) concept of
”imagined communities,” in which a nation is created through shared symbols and narratives. Digi-
tal discourse accelerates this process, spreading historical references, national symbols, and memories
of shared experiences. Studies have empirically shown that social media reinforces national identity
through recurring symbolic narratives (Gerbaudo,2018;Mihelj &Jiménez-Martínez,2021). Thus, the
recurring presence of Adwa in GERD discourse decontextualizes memories, giving them new meanings
in contemporary Ethiopian discourse.
Moreover, the ndings indicate that digital platforms increase emotional engagement and participation
in such imagined communities. Unlike traditional media, social media enables the spread of symbolic
content, which aligns with the concept of participatory nationalism in the digital age, where people co-
create and share national stories every day (Papacharissi,2015). Therefore, GERD discourse indicates
that collective identity is imagined and performed online.
The GERD case in Ethiopia is similar to other postcolonial infrastructure symbolism. Alaka (2025)
indicates that infrastructure in African development projects symbolizes sovereignty, dignity, and self-
determination. Recent studies indicate that megaprojects symbolize pride and self-determination in
the Global South, particularly for marginalized groups Saklani,2022. The GERD case is similar in that
it symbolizes the country’s ability to manage resources and develop independently. The study’s nd-
ings also touch on infrastructure nationalism, in which infrastructure projects symbolize moderniza-
tion and legitimacy. As Anand and Navío-Marco (2018) and Larkin (2013) indicate that infrastructure
in development projects symbolizes power and ambition. The GERD case is an example of infrastruc-
ture nationalism, as it symbolizes Egypt’s ability to develop hydropower and thus attain civilizational
status.
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The current study contributes to this literature by revealing the role of digital communication in me-
diating and amplifying infrastructure symbolism. Social media enables decentralized actors, such as
urban users and diaspora communities, to participate in shaping the national narrative. This transforms
infrastructure nationalism into a socially distributed process. Diaspora communities play an important
role in transnational narratives and global perceptions of national projects (Brinkerho,2009). Diaspora
engagement in GERD is important for the symbolic framing of the dam as it extends into global space.
In summary, the GERD case demonstrates how historical memory, digital nationalism, and infrastruc-
ture symbolism converge to form a robust, emotionally charged communication. Linking the legacy
of Adwa and contemporary modernization through social media connects past resistance with present
infrastructure politics, thus making symbolic communication critical today.
5.4 Algorithmic Mediation and Platform Political Economy
The current GERD debate is also shaped by how platforms such as YouTube, Facebook, and X (formerly
Twitter) use algorithms to organize communication. In the digital political economy, algorithms do not
act in a neutral manner. Instead, they aim to increase engagement by elevating emotionally charged and
highly interactive forms of communication, such as outrage, nationalism, and fear, along with shares,
comments, and viewing time (Castells,2009). As a result, the GERD debate over sovereignty, existential
threat, or regional power is amplied to align with platform monetization and engagement.
This focus also solidies the polarized and repetitive narratives. Platforms have become echo chambers
that amplify geopolitics rather than foster deliberative politics. In response to algorithmic preferences,
state actors, media outlets, and digital inuencers adjust their narratives, fueling the rapid spread of
simplistic and emotionally charged GERD narratives. GERD narratives gained visibility after major
diplomatic incidents in the region, including negotiations, ocial statements, and even international
interventions. The interplay between technology and geopolitics is evident. Therefore, the GERD de-
bate is conditioned by digitally mediated power relations, where visibility, virility, and dominance align
as much with platform logic as with state interests.
5.5 African Hydropolitics and Postcolonial Sovereignty
In the context of Africa’s hydropolitical landscape, the GERD discourse demonstrates an unusually high
level of narrative convergence compared to other water conicts. In other major water infrastructure
conicts (Nile River Basin, Mekong River Basin, and Indus River Basin), Cascao et al. (2020) and Zeitoun
and Warner (2006) demonstrated that the discourse on domestic water infrastructure is typically frag-
mented and contentious. In the Ethiopian digital landscape, however, the GERD discourse demon-
strates strong cohesion around the themes of development and nation-building. Therefore, GERD dis-
course represents an exceptional case of communicative convergence in the context of development and
nation-building.
The GERD discourse demonstrates a high level of cohesion and convergence because of the historical
and symbolic signicance of the Nile River Basin in the memory of the Ethiopian people. Research
on nationalism has demonstrated that the sharing of common histories and symbols is an important
factor in the cohesion of public discourse Wodak,2017. In the context of GERD discourse, the Nile
River Basin represents water infrastructure and a symbol of civilization closely associated with issues of
identity, sovereignty, and continuity. The pattern of participation in GERD discourse reveals a stratied,
complementary relationship between domestic and diasporic communities. This pattern is consistent
with the concept of transnational digital nationalism, in which the diasporic community co-produces
national discourse on the global Internet (Mihelj &Jiménez-Martínez,2021) .
This is supported by studies on digital diaspora, which demonstrate that migrants inuence their home
countries through symbolism, advocacy and informal public diplomacy (Bernal,2006). Empirical stud-
ies have shown that diaspora communities function as bridges in international communication, trans-
lating local issues into a global language that reaches international audiences through journalists and
policymakers (Aydar,2018). This is also supported by the GERD case study, which indicates that dias-
pora communities inuence international narratives by amplifying national narratives, responding to
international critiques, and engaging with global media.
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This study shows that there is a hybrid model of discourse on GERD that includes both local conver-
gence and amplication at the international level. On the one hand, local discourse has a unied frame
of reference that emphasizes sovereignty; while on the other hand, diaspora communities amplify this
discourse at the international level. This strongly indicates the strength, visibility, and coherence of
GERD discourse at both the local and international levels.
6 Conclusion, Limitations, and Recommendations
6.1 Conclusion
This study aims to examine the role of social media plays a part in the GERD conict between Egypt
and Ethiopia through 18 key informant interviews with diplomats, analysts, content creators, ocials,
journalists, and advocates. The study nds that social media is an important site of digital national-
ism, narrative competition, and engagement in international conicts, particularly in cross-border wa-
ter conicts between Egypt and Ethiopia. Ethiopian narratives revolve around themes of sovereignty,
development, and historical justice, whereas Egyptian narratives center on survival, water security,
and historical rights. Non-state actors, such as inuencers and civil society groups, also play an im-
portant part in amplifying transnational perspectives, which can mobilize and polarize public opinion.
This study aims to provide insights into popular geopolitics, framing theory, and digital diplomacy to
deepen our understanding of how digital communication recongures international conicts, particu-
larly in Africa.
6.2 Limitations
Although there are valuable insights to be derived from this study, there are several limitations. First,
it is a study based on a small sample of 18 key informants, which might overlook other perspectives
regarding GERD. This study also relied on synthesized interviews owing to operational challenges,
which may have overlooked real-world complexities. Another limitation is that it only considers two
countries, Egypt and Ethiopia, while other regional players, such as Sudan, might have valuable insights
to oer regarding this issue. Finally, it relies on qualitative insights, which may limit its generalization
to other scenarios or conicts involving water resources.
6.3 Recommendations
The ndings suggest that governments need a clear, well-coordinated social media strategy that bal-
ances truth and creative communication to reduce polarization in society. There is a need for govern-
ments and civil society to monitor online conversations and identify misinformation in order to correct
it. There is a need to collaborate with non-state actors, such as inuencers and civil society, to foster
dialogue and share accurate information. Education must be enhanced to increase digital literacy in
society. There is a need to conduct more research across more Nile Basin countries and analyze social
media trends to better understand societal trends. Policymakers should use social media insights to
foster diplomacy and cooperation. Understanding social media is important for conict management
and cooperation in the Nile Basin.
Funding Information
No author received funding for the purpose of this research
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Conict of Interests
The authors declare that there are no conicts of interest
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