Climate change and Trend analysis of rain fall and temperature in Southern Ethiopia

Abstract

This study was conducted to provide up-to-date information for the better management of climate change in the southern Ethiopia. The analysis is based on the annual rainfall, maximum, minimum and mean temperature difference in study area across lowland, midland and highland agro-ecologies. The overall objective of this study was to investigate the trend of annual rainfall, maximum, minimum and mean temperature and to see difference between agro-ecologies in the study area. And the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen's slope estimate were employed to find the nature of the climate change trend and significance level in the study area.

The result showed that, decreasing trend of total annual rainfall in all the three agro-ecologies with Sen's slope estimate (Q) value of -2.56, -4.66, and -3.29 for midland, lowland, and highland agro-ecologies respectively. For the midland, lowland and highland agro-ecologies the Sen's estimate (Q value) for the maximum temperatures was 0.022, 0.023, and 0.052, respectively.  For midland, lowland and highland agro-ecologies, the Sen's estimate (Q value) for the minimum temperatures was 0.03, 0.04, and 0.05, respectively. For midland, lowland and highland agro-ecologies, the Sen's estimate (Q value) for the mean temperatures was 0.014, 0.032, and 0.066, respectively. Sen's estimate's positive value (Q value) indicates that the maximum, minimum and mean temperature in each of the three agro-ecologies have been rising over time. There is a decreasing rainfall of tendency and increasing tendency of maximum, minimum and mean temperature in the study area. Therefore, the study recommends that the climate variability of needs further monitoring technique, and there is a need to consider the climate change trend to minimize its effects on agricultural production and overall livelihood of the small holders in the study area.